Just the facts...
| Current Economic Conditions |
| The Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates, providing weekly updates with the most recent economic data. |
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| Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2009. |
| 3/31 update: Consumer sentiment ended the month with a negative rate of change from last month. The STLFSI recovered somewhat from the SVB bank failure shock, but it remains below the baseline. Unless more banking sector risks emerge, the STLFSI should eventually move above the baseline. Although weekly unemployment claims had a negative rate of change compared to last month, they continue to remain historically low. Statistically, there was little change in the MoC, which continues to signal a sub-optimal economy. |
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| Economic Data Updates: 3/27 to 3/31: STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment; 3/20 to 3/24: Existing home sales, private building permits, CFNAI, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI; 3/13 to 3/17: NFIB small business optimism, OECD business confidence, retail sales, week unemployment claims, STLFSI, industrial production, capacity utilization, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (mid-monts); 3/6 to 3/10: Nonfarm job openings, nonfarm new hires, total vehicle sales, weekly unemployment claims, STLFSI, and temporary employment. |
| To read about upgrades and adjustments to the BaR, go here.. |
| Economic Indicators Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends |
| Updated 3/31. To see previous tables go here. Next update 4/7. |
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| Current Business Cycle Rolling 3-Month Average with reported data through January 2023; Updated 2/28/23 (See other business cycles) |
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| The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man |
