Just the facts...
|Baseline and Rate of Change (BaR) Analysis Grid©|
|The BaR Analysis Grid© clarifies current economic conditions and signals how near the economy is to a recession. The mean of coordinates (MoC) indicates the overall health of the economy. Leading indicators (LD) are a subset of indicators that provide insight into emerging trends. Click here to learn how to read the BaR grid. The BaR is updated on Thursday or Friday, depending on data release dates.
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|9/10 Update: The decline in vehicles sales in August reflects the earlier reports of weak consumer sentiment. Cautious consumer outlook and spending, with continued higher than normal unemployment, continue to hamper economic growth. This is reflected in the leading indicators (LD) remaining in the decline quadrant. However, the MoC remains in the expansion quadrant, indicating that overall the economy is growing. Until consumer sentiment and unemployment claims climb above the baseline, expect sluggish grow. The stock market seems to now be taking note of the economy's underlying weakness.|
|Click on arrows to see how the current business cycle has progressed since 2019.
|Data Updates: 9/6 to 9/10: Job opening, new hires, vehicle sales, weekly unemployment claims, and the STLFSI; 8/30 to 9/3: NACM credit managers' index, ISM manufacturing, ISM non-manufacturing, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, temporary employment, and yield curve; 8/23 to 8/27: Existing home sales, CFNAI, STLFSI, weekly unemployment claims, nonfinancial corporate profits, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment (month end); 8/16 to 8/20: Nonfinancial corporate profits (BEA revised), Industrial production, capacity utilization, retail sales, private building permits, weekly unemployment claims, and STLFSI.
|Percent from Baseline: 3-Month and 1-Year Trends|
|Updated 9/10. To see previous tables go here. Next update 9/17.
|Current Business Cycle
Rolling 3-Month Average through July 2021; Updated 8/28/21
(See other business cycles)
|The problem with putting two and two together is that sometimes you get four, and sometimes you get twenty-two.” ― Nick Charles, The Thin Man|